Science

Frank B. Hu, M.D., PH.D., Meir J. Stampfer, M.D., DR.P.H., Joann E. Mason, M.D., DR.P.H., Francine Grodstein, D.SC., Graham A. Colditz, M.D., DR.P.H., Frank E. Speizer, M.D., and Walter C. Willett, M.D., DR.P.H.

Background: Previous studies have found concur- rent declines in blood pressure, serum cholesterol levels, and the incidence of and mortality from coronary disease. However, the effects of changes in diet and lifestyle on trends in coronary disease are largely unknown.
Methods: We followed 85,941 women who were 34 to 59 years old and had no previously diagnosed cardiovascular disease or cancer from 1980 to 1994 in the Nurses’ Health Study. Diet and lifestyle variables were assessed at base line and updated during follow-up.
Results After adjustment for the effect of age, the incidence of coronary disease declined by 31 percent from the two-year period 1980–1982 to the two-year period 1992–1994. From 1980 to 1992, the proportion of participants currently smoking declined by 41 per- cent, the proportion of postmenopausal women us- ing hormone therapy increased by 175 percent, and the prevalence of overweight, defined as a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 25 or more, in- creased by 38 percent. During the study period, diet improved substantially. Statistically, changes in these variables — when considered simultaneously — ex- plained a 21 percent decline in the incidence of coronary disease, representing 68 percent of the overall decline from 1980–1982 to 1992–1994. Taken individually, the reduction in smoking explained a 13 percent decline in the incidence of coronary disease; improvement in diet explained a 16 percent decline; and increase in postmenopausal hormone use explained a 9 percent decline. On the other hand, the increase in body-mass index explained an 8 percent increase in the incidence of coronary disease.
Conclusions: Reduction in smoking, improvement in diet, and an increase in postmenopausal hormone use accounted for much of the decline in the incidence of coronary disease in this group of women. An increasing prevalence of obesity, however, appears to have slowed the decline in the incidence of coronary disease. (N Engl J Med 2000;343:530-7.)